The writing has been on the wall for months and now Microsoft has admitted that it isn't going to meet its own target of having Windows 10 installed on 1 billion devices within 2-3 years of its release.
As the first anniversary of Window 10 approaches Microsoft has conceded that the claim made by Microsoft Windows and Devices chief Terry Myerson at Build 2015, that Windows 10 would be installed on 1 billion devices by mid-2018m just isn't going to happen.
Following up on last week's Ed Bott report for ZDNet, in which he concluded:
Although Myerson and his team are still confident about their ability to hit the 1-billion milestone, it's unlikely to happen by 2018 as originally projected.
Mary Jo Foley sought official clarification and published this statement from a Microsoft spokesperson:
"Windows 10 is off to the hottest start in history with over 350m monthly active devices, with record customer satisfaction and engagement. We're pleased with our progress to date, but due to the focusing of our phone hardware business, it will take longer than FY18 for us to reach our goal of 1 billion monthly active devices. In the year ahead, we are excited about usage growth coming from commercial deployments and new devices -- and increasing customer delight with Windows."
Back in May we reported Windows 10 On 300 Million Devices based on market share statistics from Net Applications so if Microsoft could continue with the rate of 350 million monthly active devices there would not be a problem. However, with the free upgrade from Windows 7 (which still accounts for more than half of all Windows installations) coming to an end on July 29th this rate is likely to plummet.
So where did it all go so wrong?
In one word - mobile.
Myerson's original projection factored in selling 50 million Windows phones a year. Within weeks of his claim Microsoft Scaled Down Windows Phone by writing off its Nokia phone business, a move which saw 7,800 people sacked. Phones had been an important part of the 1 billion devices, because one of the way in which the Universal Windows Platform enables developers to easily adapt their software for the many different form factors that Windows supports. So far Windows 10 phones have the status of a very rare breed. And while we shared a moment of optimism when Microsoft launched Continuum, hardware that means you can work with your phone and continue to work at your desk, see Continuum - Microsoft's Killer Phone Feature?, so far it hasn't been the game changer that the original hype promised.
So has Microsoft's game plan for Windows 10 been road blocked or is it just a delay? Microsoft is still optimistic and having upgraded from Windows 7 to Windows 10 to beat the July 29 deadline I'm happy with the switch.
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