Microsoft might be regretting not finding a good reason to extend the period of free upgrade to Windows 10. Window 10's share of the desktop market has actually shrunk a little in the last couple of months while Windows 7 has recovered its share.
This finding is based on the latest figures from NetMarket Share.
The pie chart that summarizes the overall position shows that Windows 7 is on 48.38% of desktop computers at October 31st, 2016, with Windows 10 having 22.59%, which doesn't sound too bad.
It's when you look at the Trend chart that you realize it really is pretty disappointing. There was a peak at 22.99% in August followed by a decline back to 22.53%, i.e a change of -0.45% in September and although this was not continued in October the recovery to 22.59% was only in the second decimal place, 0.06%. It could be months at that rate until the August share is restored.
Windows 7 on the other hand saw an increase in its share in each of August (0.24%), September (1.02%) and Oct (0.11%).
A slow down in growth was only to be expected once the period for free upgrade to Windows expired at the end of July but taking the longer view shows just how damaging this has been. If the rate of decline for Windows 7 from its peak of 60.98% in June 2015 to its low of 47.01% in July 2016 (i.e. a decline of 13.97%) had continued then, growing at the rate it had achieved in the same period (22.83%), Windows 10 could have been expected to overtake Windows 7 on the desktop next Spring. 
(click in graph to enlarge)
But what is going to motivate the resistors to move now they have to pay to do so? We have the example of Windows XP, still on 8.27% of Desktops to remind us how reluctant users are to give up on reliable and popular operating systems.
More Information
NetMarketShare
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