IDC surveyed 6,698 developers at the end of November 2013 on behalf of mobile technology company Appcelerator, which now has data on platform preferences from twelve surveys stretching back to June 2010.
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Although iPhone is still the clear leader in terms of the percentage of developers in the Appcelerator community who are "very interested" in it, there was a clear decline in interest during 2013 and it is now at its lowest point at 84.2%, around 10% lower than its peak in January 2011.
Interest in iPad peaked in July 2012, which also saw a resurgence for iPhone, but it too saw its lowest popularity in November 2013 at 81.7%.
The Android phone, by contrast, experienced its low point in August 2012 and has now recovered to79.4% and interest in the Android tablet dipped slightly to 66.1%.
The finding Appcelerator singled out for further investigation concerns HTML5:
the number of developers reporting to be “very interested” in building apps on HTML5 fell to 59.9% – the lowest level since we began tracking the specification in April 2011. Interest in HTML5 peaked in July 2012 at 72.7%, and has shown an uneven but downward slope since.
This decline may be attributable to developer pragmatism. HTML5 has had several years now to break away from the pack and has failed to do so. Most respondents were neutral on HTML5, agreeing that it had its place for certain kinds of apps, but couldn’t be looked to as a cure-all for the challenges of multi-platform development. 13% reported no experience with HTML5; when looking only at the cohort with experience, 56% were neutral or negative on the standard.
From its further exploration the report notes:
Summing this up the report uses the headline:
which echoes what I Programmer has been predicting since 2011 when Ian Elliot wrote:
What surprises us is that it is taking so long.